Keir Starmer meets Labour Batley and Spen candidate in May
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Polls showing national parliamentary voting intention, and conducted by Politico, show the Labour Party are even more unpopular now than they at the end of Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership in 2019. A Poll of Polls conducted by the publication combines every poll taken – along with its sample size and margin of error – to create new data and plot a trend line from findings. According to the master political survey, the General Election two years ago on December 12 saw the Labour Party hold 33 percent of the country’s voting intention, compared to the Tories’ 44 percent.
As of June 24, 2021, Labour’s voting intention has dipped further down to 32 percent, after making gains from a low point of 29 percent when Sir Keir Starmer joined the party as leader last year.
The Conservatives’ voting intention, as per the same poll, stands at 43 percent as of June 24, 2021.
A new constituency poll suggests Mr Starmer is on course for another humiliating defeat at the Batley and Spen by-election next month.
The new survey, published by Survation, predicts the Conservatives will take the West Yorkshire constituency with 47 percent of the vote.
The same poll suggests Labour would trail behind in second place with 41 percent of the parliamentary ballot, while former Labour and Respect MP George Galloway is expected to walk away with a six percent share.
But Ladbrokes warned Mr Galloway could even surge ahead into second place.
The bookmaker said Tory candidate Ryan Stephenson is the overwhelming favourite with odds of just 1/5 ahead of Thursday’s by-election, leaving Labour’s Kim Leadbeater to drift out to 9/2.
However, the biggest market mover is George Galloway, who’s now fancied as a 12/1 shot (from 50/1).
Jessica O’Reilly of Ladbrokes said: “It looks like the Tories will land Batley and Spen with ease. The money suggests George Galloway could push into second spot, leaving Labour to settle for an embarrassing third-placed finish.”
According to the political survey, Boris Johnson is a net asset in Batley and Spen.
Surprisingly, the Prime Minister has a positive favourability rating of +18 percent, compared to Sir Keir’s poor results of -32 percent.
Fifty five percent of voters in Batley & Spen say Mr Johnson would make the best Prime Minister, compared to a tiny 18 percent for Sir Keir.
Mr Johnson is the most trusted on all the main areas of policy, with polls returning favourable results on Brexit, COVID-19 and the economy.
The Conservative leader is even polling ahead on the NHS – a huge traditional Labour territory – by 45 percent to 30 percent.
Activists within the constituency have reported the issue of Palestine and Israel being brought up by numerous voters on the doorstep.
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The Labour Party’s support for the cause during the recent eruption of conflict is being viewed as muted by many traditional voters.
The Party’s contender in Batley and Spen is Kim Leadbeater, the sister of Jo Cox.
Ms Cox represented the seat for Labour until 2016, when she was assassinated by a right-wing extremist during the EU referendum campaign.
Labour has managed to hold on to the seat at every election since 1983, but this looks set to change this year amid some historic changes for the party.
If the predictions come to fruition on July 1, the result will amount to the second formerly safe Labour seat lost by Sir Keir in the space of just two months.
The party got a surprising battering in Hartlepool’s by-election in May, after they lost a seat they’ve held since its creation in 1974.
Mr Starmer’s critics have urged him to be clearer and more distinctive on policy, having gained the nickname ‘Captain Hindsight’ within Westminster, and voters telling pollsters they simply don’t know what he stands for.
But so far, virtually all senior Labour figures have shied away from calling on him to resign despite what is widely viewed as a lacklustre and underwhelming performance.
The party recorded its lowest score in recent history at this week’s Chesham and Amersham by-election, winning just 1.6 percent of the vote and trailing behind the Green Party, while they lost two seats down to 22 in May’s Scottish Parliamentary election.
The election contest in Chesham and Amersham has been largely seen as a two-horse-race between the Conservative party and the Liberal Democrats.
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