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Research from Focaldata shows the Conservatives predicted to lose 81 seats should a general election be held tomorrow, wiping out their 80 seat majority gained in 2019. The 22,186 person survey also holds that neither Labour or the Tories are in a position to win a majority in a general election.
Originally published in the Sunday Times, the outcome of Focaldata’s survey showed the Tories would end the theoretical election with just 284 seats.
Labour however would see a huge resurgence with 82 seats won, for a total of 282.
Worryingly for Mr Johnson, 41 of Labour’s seats won in the poll would be in Red Wall areas won by the Tories in 2019.
The Conservatives would only hold on to eight of the 43 Red Wall seats they won last election, keeping Bassetlaw, Bishop Auckland, Colne Valley, Dudley North, Great Grimsby, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Scunthorpe, and Sedgefield.
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The Prime Minister is also predicted by Focaldata to lose his own seat of Uxbridge and Ruislip South, where he currently enjoys a majority of 7,200.
Neither Labour or the Tories would have enough seats to win an outright majority according to the poll, as they both fall short of the 326 needed to form Government without a coalition.
The poll also suggests the SNP would be the biggest winners if an election were held tomorrow, with Nicola Sturgeon’s party predicted to win 57 of the available 59 seats in Scotland.
The Liberal Democrats would see a disastrous drop from 11 seats to just two under Focaldata’s polling.
Justin Ibbett, founder of Focaldata, said to the Sunday Times about the surveys findings: “One year on from their stunning general election triumph, it is clear that the Conservatives already have a lot of work to do if they are to replicate their 2019 success in future elections.
“The SNP would appear to be the real winners. Not only do they win all but two Scottish constituencies, but the most likely outcome is a Labour-SNP coalition government, which would have an overall majority of just over 20 seats.”
The survey used an MRP method, which matches life characteristics of those polled to individual constituencies, to give detailed results for a hypothetical election.
It is considered more accurate than traditional surveys, which do not account for local variations and factors.
The Focaldata poll was also carried out between December 4 and December 29.
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It comes as the Prime Minister has struggled in recent polls due to the coronavirus pandemic, while Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has made headway in gaining back support for the party.
A survey released on December 28 found that 48 percent disapproved of the Government, versus 31 percent approving and 21 percent saying they do not know.
YouGov also released polling data on December 15 showing just 35 percent of those surveyed believe the Government is handling coronavirus “very well” or “somewhat well”.
Politico also carried out a survey on December 22 which gave Labour a 1 percent lead over the Tories in voting intention.
Mr Johnson refused to rule out stricter measures to curb the spread of coronavirus yesterday, stating regional rules are “probably going to get tougher”.
Speaking to BBC One’s Andrew Marr, he said: “It may be that we need to do things in the next few weeks that will be tougher in many parts of the country. I’m fully, fully reconciled to that.”
Meanwhile, Sir Keir has urged the Government to impose nationwide lockdown restrictions today as the virus is “clearly out of control”.
He added: “It’s no good the prime minister hinting that further restrictions are coming into place in a week or two or three. That delay has been the source of so many problems.”
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