UK long-range forecast: Spanish heatwave to sizzle Britain – tropical air to grip nation

UK Weather: Met Office forecast sunny spells

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The latest long-range weather forecast from the BBC is predicting a build-up of high pressure throughout the UK towards the end of this month that could nudge temperatures up towards the mid-20s. The possibility of a heatwave is reflected in the latest weather charts from Netweather, with maximum temperatures forecast to hit 25C on August 24. They will be marginally lower at 24C in East Anglia the day prior, before edging up by a degree 24 hours later and hitting highs of 25C in London.

During this time, temperatures are set to hit a high of 27C in Northern France, suggesting the band of high pressure and increasing warm air is edging closer to the UK.

Looking ahead to the period of August 23-29, BBC Weather said on its website Atlantic weather fronts will be deflected to the north towards Iceland as opposed to moving into the UK from the west.

This band of high pressure will also increase the temperature of the air overhead, with temperatures forecast to be “widely above average for many of the days”.

BBC Weather said on its website: “For the final full week of meteorological summer, once the weekend low moves away, we expect high pressure to build across the UK.

“This will keep the weather more settled and generally summerlike.

“Winds will tend to be light with Atlantic weather fronts deflected to the north towards Iceland instead of moving into the UK from the west.

“As high pressure sits overhead for longer, it will help warm up the air stuck in place overhead, so we anticipate that temperatures will be widely above average for many of the days.”

This increasingly hot air also increases the chances of a heatwave scorching the country and almost mirrors what happened in July, when high pressure sat overhead and slowly heated up an otherwise mildly warm air mass.

If this is repeated towards the end of the summer, temperatures could “steadily climb through the week and be well above average, perhaps enough to reach heatwave levels for some areas”.

BBC Weather said: “With this comes an increased chance for a heatwave to develop.

“We saw something similar back in July, where high pressure sat overhead and slowly heated up an otherwise mildly warm air mass.

“If this develops, temperatures could steadily climb through the week and be well above average, perhaps enough to reach heatwave levels for some areas.”

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But if this band of high pressure moves towards Germany, it will be they who will experience the “gradual warming effect”, which would see winds strengthen slightly and shift out to the south-west, bringing some tropical Atlantic air in.

This would still be a warm pattern, but unlikely to hit heatwave proportions unless the winds move out of the south and travel up from Spain.

BBC Weather concluded: “We have high confidence in the high pressure and above-average temperatures, but lower confidence just how warm it will get as this will be very sensitive to the exact position of the high.

“One of the three situations is likely, with the hot southerly wind perhaps the least likely of the three with only a 10 percent chance. South-west tropical winds have around a 25 percent chance.”

For the period from August 22-31, the Met Office said “temperatures most likely remaining close to, or rather above average, with warm spells likely at times”.

But the forecast also warns: “Confidence is low to start this period, with uncertainties in the details of an area of low pressure which is likely to be in charge.

“Initially unsettled, particularly in the south, with extensive rain and showers on Sunday.

“Conditions should become more settled into next week, with plenty of dry weather with occasional sunny spells.

“These more settled conditions could remain throughout the week, however rain and showers could develop once again.

“This is most likely towards the south with rain most probably moving in from the west.

“Winds likely to be light at the start of the period before perhaps increasing through the week, particularly if the unsettled weather arrives from the west.”

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